Water-Supply Paper 2499
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey

Summary of Floods in the United States, January 1992 Through September 1993

Edited by C.A. Perry and L.J. Combs

Contents

Abstract

This volume contains a summary of the flooding in the upper Mississippi River Basin during the spring and summer of 1993 and 36 articles describing severe, widespread, or unusual flooding in the United States from January 1, 1992, to the end of the 1993 water year, September 30, 1993. Each flood is described to an extent commensurate with its significance and the availability of data on the hydrology and the damages. Each article includes one or more maps showing the general area of flooding and the sites for which data are presented. Most articles include tables of data that allow the reader to compare the described flood with past floods at selected flood-determination sites. The articles generally do not attempt to analyze the floods or draw definitive conclusions, except for a few cases in which the author had sufficient information for an analysis to be made.

INTRODUCTION

This report summarizes information on floods in the United States from January 1, 1992, through September 30, 1993. The floods reported were unusual hydrologic events during which large areas were affected, great damage resulted, or record-high stages or discharges occurred and for which sufficient data were available for the preparation of an informative article. The States in which the floods described in this volume occurred are shown in figure 1. Also shown is the year(s) of occurrence.

A flood may be defined as any abnormally high streamflow that overtops natural or artificial banks of a stream. Every year, a large number of floods occur that are not reported in national or regional media.

Innumerable combinations of variable meteorologic and physiographic factors produce floods of all degrees and severity. Some meteorologic factors that affect floods are the form, amount, duration, and intensity of precipitation; the amount of previous precipitation, which would affect the moisture absorption of the soil; the air temperature, which may result in frozen soil or may determine the rate of snowmelt; and the direction of storm movement. The principal physiographic features of a drainage basin that determine floodflows are drainage area, elevation, character of soil, shape, slope, direction of slope, and vegetative or other land cover. With the exception of vegetative cover and soil preconditions, the physiographic features are fixed for any given drainage basin. The combination of the magnitude and intensity of meteorologic phenomena, the antecedent moisture conditions, and the effect of inherent physiographic features on runoff determines what the magnitude of a flood will be.

Flood damages frequently are difficult to assess. Dollar amounts given in this report should be used as a general indication of flood losses rather than as definite values. Even if detailed surveys and estimates have been made, there is little consistency among methods used and types of losses included. Some estimates may exclude certain locations (such as mountainous areas) or types of loss (either insured or uninsured) or type of property (either private or public). Some estimates include traffic interruptions and flood-mitigation costs; others include strictly physical damage. Estimates may be based on replacement costs or on depreciated values. For floods not described in detailed published reports, the only damage estimates available usually are the preliminary figures contained in newspapers, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) climatological data, or other sources published shortly after the flood. A statement that a disaster declaration was issued indicates that the damage was severe and that financial aid to victims was authorized by the governmental entity making the declaration.

Many of the articles in this volume give the amount of rainfall and duration of the storm associated with the flooding. Recurrence intervals for these storms may be determined from a rainfall-frequency atlas of the United States (U.S. Weather Bureau, 1961) or from a simplified set of equal-rainfall maps and charts contained in a report by Rostvedt (1965).

Continuing investigation of surface-water resources in the flooded areas reported by this volume is performed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with State agencies, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation, and other Federal or local agencies. NOAA, in addition to collecting and compiling data on meteorological phenomena, also collects data on stream stages in some areas. The data presented herein were collected, computations were made, and most of the text was written by U.S. Geological Survey personnel located in offices in or near the flooded areas.

Previous Reports

During the 1950's and 1960's, the U.S. Geological Survey summarized floods of each year in an annual series of Water-Supply Papers entitled, "Summary of Floods in the United States." A summary was published for each calendar year from 1950 through 1969. Water-Supply Paper 1137-I, the first in the series (U.S. Geological Survey, 1954), states the purpose of the series as being:

"To assemble in a single volume information relating to all known severe floods in the United States whether local or of wide areal extent. For floods that are described in ... other publications of the Geological Survey or in reports by other Federal and State agencies, only very brief mention including references to the reports containing detailed descriptions, will be given here. Local floods for which no individual reports have been prepared are described briefly."

In the first volume of that Water-Supply Paper series, each flood was described in a maximum of three or four paragraphs. Later volumes contained longer articles including maps.

The series was discontinued after the 1969 volume; however, in 1987 a program was begun to prepare and publish summaries for 1970 and succeeding years. Much of the following explanation is paraphrased from Byron N. Aldridge (U.S. Geological Survey, written commun., 1993) and from the published report for 1968 (Rostvedt, 1972).

Determination of Flood Stages and Discharges

The usual method of determining stream discharges at a streamflow-gaging station is the application of a stage-discharge relation to a known stage. This relation usually is defined by current-meter measurements made through as wide a range of stage as possible (fig. 2). If the maximum discharge exceeds the range of the current-meter measurements, short extensions may be made to a graph of the stage-discharge relation by logarithmic extrapolation, by velocity-area studies, or by the use of other measurable hydraulic factors (Kennedy, 1983).

Maximum discharges that are greatly above the range of the defined stage-discharge relation at streamflow-gaging stations and maximum discharges at miscellaneous sites that have no developed stage-discharge relation generally are determined by various types of indirect measurements. In addition, adverse conditions often make it impossible to obtain current-meter measurements at some sites during major floods. Maximum discharges at these sites are determined, after the floods have subsided, by indirect methods, which involve determination of water-surface elevations from high-water marks, surveying cross sections, and computing discharge from hydraulic equations rather than from direct measurement of stream velocity by use of a current meter. Indirect methods are described by Dalrymple and Benson (1967), Hulsing (1967), Matthai (1967), Bodhaine (1968), and Benson and Dalrymple (1987).

The accuracy of indirect measurements depends on onsite conditions and the experience of data-collection personnel who select sites and make the surveys, and generally is poorer than for current-meter measurements. The indirect measurements used in determining maximum discharges for floods are not identified as such in this volume. Information as to the source and quality of discharge data in this volume can be obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey office in the State in which the reported flood-determination site is located.

Explanation of Data

Floods are described in this volume in chronological order. Because the type and the amount of information differ for the floods, no consistent form can be used to report the events.

The data for each flood include: (1) a description of the storm, the flood, and the flood damage; (2) a map of the flood area showing flood-determination sites and, for some storms, precipitation data sites or lines of equal precipitation; (3) rainfall amounts and intensities; (4) and maximum stages and discharges for the streams affected.

When considerable rainfall data are available, they are presented in tabular form and show daily or storm totals. When sufficient data are available to determine the pattern and distribution of rainfall, an isohyetal map may be shown.

A summary table of maximum stages and discharge is given for each flood, except where the number of flood-determination sites in the article is small and for which the information is included in the text description. In the summary table (table 1), the first three columns identify the site, which may be a continuous-record streamflow-gaging station, a partial-record station, or another site at which data have been obtained. The number in the first column identifies the site on a map that accompanies each article. The second column gives the U.S. Geological Survey station number (downstream-order number) if such a number has been assigned. The third column gives the name of the streamflow-gaging station or flood-determination site.

Table 1. Example of summary table presented in flood articles

[mi², square miles; ft, feet above an arbitrary datum; ft³/s, cubic feet per second; >, greater than; <, less than' --, not determined or not applicable. Source: Recurrence intervals calculated from U.S. Geological Survey data. Other data from U.S. Geological Survey reports or data bases]

Maximum prior to
[month] 1992
Maximum during
[month] 1992
Site
no.
(fig. #)
Station no. Stream and place
of determination
Drainage
area
(mi²)
Period Year Stage
(ft)
Dis-
charge
(ft³/s)
Day Stage
(ft)
Discharge
(ft³/s)
Dis-
charge
recur-
rence
interval
(years)
1 05551212 Hypothetical Creek near Town 21.0 1971-92 1987 11.1 -- 10 12.22 4,200 25
2 05555000 Hypothetical River at City 1,212 1939,
1955-92
1939 12.12 28,200 12 21.21 82,800 >100
3 06930030 Hypothetical River near
Metropolis
3,333 1919-92 1943 33.33
--
--
99,900
13 25.55 33,000 <2
4 -- Hypothetical Ditch at Village -- 1992 -- -- -- 19 -- 3,800 --

Drainage area in the summary table is the total area, as measured on a flat projection map, that would contribute surface runoff to the indicated site. The contributing drainage area may be smaller than the total drainage area if the total area includes areas of extremely rapid infiltration rates that do not produce surface runoff, or closed subbasins that retain all their inflow.

The column headed "Period" shows the calendar years prior to the described flood for which the stage or discharge shown in the seventh and eighth columns are known to be a maximum. For most sites, this period corresponds to the period of systematic collection of streamflow data. For other sites, written or oral history may indicate that a flood stage was the highest since people have observed the stream or was the highest since some known date.

The sixth column shows the calendar year in which the maximum stage and discharge for the indicated period occurred. The seventh and eighth columns show the stage and discharge of that maximum. Separate listings are made when maximum stage and maximum discharge did not occur concurrently. An effort was made to use stages that were measured relative to the datum in use at the time of the flood being described or to indicate by a footnote that a different datum was used.

The last four columns present data for the maximums during the described flood or floods. The data include the date on which the maximum occurred, maximum stage, and maximum discharge and, where available, the recurrence interval of the discharge.

The probability of a given discharge being equaled or exceeded in any given year frequently is used as an indication of a flood's relative magnitude and for comparison with floods at other sites. The relative magnitude also can be expressed in terms of recurrence interval, which is the reciprocal of the flood probability. A third way of expressing the relative flood magnitude is the percent chance of occurrence, which is 100 times the flood probability. A discharge that will be equaled or exceeded on an average (over a long period of time) of once in 10 years has a recurrence interval of 10 years, is termed a "10-year flood," has a probability of 0.10, and has a 10-percent chance of occurring in any given year. A 100-year flood has a recurrence interval of 100 years, a probability of 0.01, and a 1-percent chance of occurring in any given year. Because recurrence interval is used most commonly by Federal agencies (for example, in the context of flood insurance), it is used in this volume even though percent chance avoids the unintended connotations of regularity of occurrence that accompany the term "recurrence interval."

Equivalence of flood probability and percent-chance values to selected recurrence-interval values is as follows:

Probability Percent change Recurrence
interval
0.50 50       2
  .20 20       5
  .10 10     10
  .04   4     25
  .02   2     50
  .01   1   100

In addition to probability or percent chance of a given magnitude of discharge occurring in any one year, the probability or percent chance of occurrence during a given period of consecutive years also can be calculated. Results of such calculations for selected combinations of recurrence interval and length of period are as follows (* means greater than 99.9 but less than a 100-percent chance):

Percent chance for indicated time period, in years
Recur-
rence
interval
5 10 50 100 500
    2 97 99.9 * * *
  10 41 65   99.5 * *
  50 10 18   64   87   *
100   5 10   39   63   99.3

Recurrence intervals during any given flood may differ from site to site because of nonuniform distribution of runoff and uncertainty in the computed recurrence values. Operational patterns for reservoirs generally are not defined adequately to permit recurrence intervals to be computed for maximum discharges on regulated streams.

Another method of indicating a flood's relative magnitude is by comparison of its maximum discharge and the stream's drainage area with values on a regional "envelope curve." A flood-envelope curve is one drawn on a graph in which maximum known discharges are plotted against the drainage area of each stream site (fig. 3). The envelope curve is a smooth curve drawn to equal or exceed all the plotted discharges in relation to the drainage areas. Envelope curves are given for 17 regions of the conterminous United States in Crippen and Bue (1977). This method is better than the formerly used calculation of "unit discharge" (division of the discharge by the drainage area) because unit discharges for greatly different sizes of drainage area are not comparable. If the unit discharges for a very small and a very large drainage area are the same, the unit discharge is much more unusual for the large drainage area.

References

Barrows, H.K., 1948, Floods, their hydrology and control: New York, McGraw-Hill Book Co., 432 p.

Benson, M.A., and Dalrymple, Tate, 1987, General field and office procedures for indirect measurements: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 3, chap. A1, 29 p.

Bodhaine, G.L., 1968, Measurement of peak discharge at culverts by indirect methods: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 3, chap. A3, 60 p.

Crippen, J.R., and Bue, C.D., 1977, Maximum floodflows in the conterminous United States: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1887, 52 p.

Dalrymple, Tate, and Benson, M.A., 1967, Measurement of peak discharge by slope-area method: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 3, chap. A2, 12 p.

Hoyt, W.G., and Langbein, W.B., 1955, Floods: Princeton, N.J., Princeton University Press, 469 p.

Hulsing, Harry, 1967, Measurement of peak discharge at dams by indirect methods: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 3, chap. A5, 29 p.

Jordan, P.R., and Combs, L.J., eds., 1997, Summary of floods in the United States during 1990 and 1991: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 2474, 257 p.

Kennedy, E.J., 1983, Computation of continuous records of streamflow: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 3, chap. A13, 53 p.

Langbein, W.B., and Iseri, K.T., 1960, General introduction and hydrologic definitions, in Manual of hydrology, part 1, General surface-water techniques: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1541-A, 29 p.

Leopold, L.B., and Maddock, Thomas, Jr., 1954, The flood control controversy: New York, Ronald Press Co., 278 p.

Matthai, H.F., 1967, Measurement of peak discharge at width contractions by indirect methods: U.S. Geological Survey Techniques of Water-Resources Investigations, book 3, chap. A4, 44 p.

National Weather Service, 1992a, Climatological data (by States): Asheville, N.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Weather Service (various months).

____1992b, Hourly precipitation data (by States): Asheville, N.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Weather Service (various months).

____1992c, Storm data and unusual weather phenomena: Asheville, N.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center, v. 34, nos. 1-12 (various pages).

____1993a, Climatological data (by States): Asheville, N.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Weather Service (various months).

____1993b, Hourly precipitation data (by States): Asheville, N.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Weather Service (various months).

____1993c, Storm data and unusual weather phenomena: Asheville, N.C., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Climate Data Center, v. 35, nos. 1-12 (various pages).

Rostvedt, J.O., 1965, Summary of floods in the United States during 1960: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1790-B, 147 p.

____1972, Summary of floods in the United States during 1968: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1970-B, 73 p.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1994, Annual flood damage report to Congress for fiscal year 1993: Washington, D.C., U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Engineering Division, 17 p.

U.S. Geological Survey, 1954, Summary of floods in the United States during 1950: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Supply Paper 1137-I, p. 957-991.

U.S. Weather Bureau, 1961, Rainfall frequency atlas of the United States: U.S. Weather Bureau Technical Paper 40, 115 p.

Wilson, W.T., 1942, Melting characteristics of snow and its contribution to runoff, in June 30-July 2, 1941, Hydrology Conference Proceedings: University Park, Pennsylvania State College, School of Engineering Technical Bulletin 27, p. 153-165.

Floods of the Upper Mississippi River Basin, Spring and Summer 1993

During spring and summer 1993, the hydrologic effects of extended rainfall throughout the upper midwestern United States were severe and widespread. Record flooding inundated much of the upper Mississippi Basin. The magnitude of the damages--in terms of property, disrupted business, and personal trauma--was unmatched by any other flood disaster in United States history. Property damage alone was estimated to exceed $10 billion (Parrett and others, 1993). Damaged highways and submerged roads disrupted overland transportation throughout the flooded region. The Mississippi and the Missouri Rivers were closed to navigation before, during, and after the flooding. Millions of acres of productive farmland remained under water for weeks during the growing season. Rills and gullies in many tilled fields resulted from the severe erosion that occurred throughout the midwestern United States farm belt.The banks and channels of many rivers were severely eroded, and sediment was deposited over large areas of the basin's flood plain. Record flows submerged many areas that had not been affected by previous floods. Industrial and agricultural areas were inundated, which caused concern about the transport and fate of industrial chemicals, sewage effluent, and agricultural chemicals in the floodwaters. The extent and duration of the flooding caused numerous levees to fail.

Precipitation in the Upper Mississippi River Basin During the Floods of 1993

By Kenneth L. Wahl, Kevin C. Vining, and Gregg J. Wiche

Introduction

Excessive precipitation produced severe flooding in a nine-State area in the upper Mississippi River Basin during spring and summer 1993. Following a spring that was wetter than average, weather patterns that persisted from early June through July caused the upper Midwest to be deluged with an unusually large amount of rainfall. Monthly precipitation data were examined at 10 weather-station locations in the flood-affected region to illustrate precipitation patterns and amounts in the flood-affected area. During 1993, all 10 of the selected locations received greater-than-normal rainfall for January through June, 8 of the 10 stations received more than 200 percent of the normal rainfall for July, and 3 received more than 400 percent of the normal rainfall for July. (The average rainfall for the 30-year period 1961-90 is termed "normal" rainfall.) May through August 1993 was the wettest or nearly the wettest such period on record at many locations in the flooded area. All 10 selected locations received more rainfall during the first 9 months of 1993 than generally is received during a year.

Monthly Precipitation

In early June, a weather pattern (fig. 4) developed that was characterized by a strong low-pressure trough over the western United States and a corresponding large high-pressure system positioned over the southeastern United States. The jetstream dipped south over the western United States and flowed northeasterly across the upper Midwest. Southeastern high pressure blocked the eastward movement of storms, thus creating a convergence zone between the warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico and the much cooler and drier air from Canada, which resulted in thunderstorms. This pattern persisted through most of June and July (National Weather Service, 1993b). As a result, the upper Midwest within this convergence zone was deluged with rain, while the southeastern and the eastern United States from Florida and Alabama to Delaware, under the influence of the high-pressure system, was hot, humid and had little rainfall. Slight movements in the atmospheric pattern determined the timing and location of the excessive rainfall throughout the upper Midwest.

The persistence of this weather pattern caused unusually large amounts of rain to fall over the upper Midwest. These large amounts and the wetter-than- normal spring produced flooding throughout the upper Mississippi River Basin. The rains were extraordinary in the areal extent and in the amounts accumulated. Precipitation for January 1 through July 31 totaled more than 20 inches over most of the flood-affected area and was more than 40 inches in areas of northeast Kansas and east-central Iowa (fig. 5A; Parrett and others, 1993). Most of the area received from 150 to 200 percent of the 1961-90 normal total amounts for January through July (fig. 5B; Wahl and others, 1993).

Annual precipitation over the nine-State area affected by flooding (fig. 5A, 5B) generally averages slightly more than 30 inches but ranges from about 16 inches in south-central North Dakota to about 40 inches in southern Missouri. Although precipitation is about evenly divided between the first and last halves of the year, the accumulation rates are not uniform throughout the year. Normally, 45 percent of the annual precipitation falls between April 1 and July 31; June precipitation represents about 15 percent (2 to 5 inches) of the average annual precipitation total.

Precipitation amounts recorded throughout the upper Mississippi River Basin during the first 9 months of 1993 generally were substantially greater than normal (January-September 1961-90). Although May-through-August precipitation was much greater than normal, little evidence early in the year indicated that precipitation amounts in 1993 would be above normal. January-through-March precipitation in the States of the upper Mississippi River Basin was near normal to slightly above normal. Because precipitation for those 3 months is often in the form of snow and generally totals less than 6 inches of moisture, it caused little concern for potential flooding. However, that situation began to change in April.

Precipitation in April and May over the area ranged from near normal to much greater than normal, but the areas of greatest precipitation differed for the 2 months. April rainfall was nearly twice the normal amounts in parts of Wisconsin and in Missouri but was only moderately above normal in much of the remainder of the flood-affected area. By contrast, May rainfall was more than twice the normal amounts for the month over an area that extended from southeastern South Dakota across Iowa to eastern Kansas. The largest storms, though, were still to come.

Monthly precipitation data for January through September 1993 and the normal (average) amounts for the period 1961-90 (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 1992) are compared in figure 6 for 10 weather-station locations in the upper Mississippi River Basin (table 2). These locations--Bismarck, North Dakota; Sioux Falls, South Dakota; Minneapolis, Minnesota; Des Moines and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Madison, Wisconsin; Peoria, Illinois; Manhattan, Kansas; and Kansas City and St. Louis, Missouri--are illustrative of precipitation patterns in the flood-affected area.

Precipitation during 1993 generally was much greater than normal for May through August over the entire area. The July rainfall totals, however, were particularly impressive. The significance of the July 1993 rainfall amounts can best be understood by comparing the 1993 values for January through June, July, and January through September with the 30-year normal amounts for those periods (fig. 7). All 10 of the selected locations received more than 100 percent of the normal precipitation for January through June 1961-90, and 8 locations received more than 130 percent of the normal precipitation for that period. By the end of June, the soil was saturated; then came the July 1993 deluge. Of the 10 locations, 8 received more than 200 percent of the normal rainfall for July (1961-90). Only Minneapolis (158 percent) and St. Louis (131 percent) did not receive 200 percent of the normal rainfall in July. Three locations, Bismarck, Cedar Rapids, and Manhattan, received from about 400 to about 650 percent of the normal rainfall amounts for July.

Total January-through-September rainfall for 1993 for each of the 10 locations was compared to the 1961-90 normals for the 9-month period and the annual total (fig. 8). All 10 locations received more rain in the first 9 months of 1993 than generally is received during a year. Except for Minneapolis, the 9-month totals exceeded 150 percent of normal for the period and ranged from 122 to 172 percent of the normal annual totals; Minneapolis received 124 percent of normal for January through September.

The National Weather Service computed statewide-average precipitation by month for 1895 to the present. They reported that the statewide averages for July 1993 were among the three wettest years since 1895 for eight of the nine States in the flood-affected area (National Weather Service, 1993b). Statewide average precipitation totals for the combined months of April through August 1993 were the greatest since 1895 in four States (North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Iowa) and were among the greatest five years in the other five States of the flood-affected area. Rainfall totals for the 4-month period May through August computed for this report for Bismarck, Cedar Rapids, and Manhattan were compared to period-of-record maximums for that 4-month period (table 3). At Bismarck and Cedar Rapids, May through August 1993 was the wettest such period in more than 100 years of recordkeeping. In fact, the precipitation for May through August 1993 at Cedar Rapids was 59 percent greater than for the second wettest year, 1969. At Manhattan, May through August 1993 was the second wettest such period in 104 years of record; in 1951, the 4-month rainfall total was only 2 percent greater than that of 1993.

Table 3. Five greatest May-August precipitation totals
for Bismarck, North Dakota, Cedar Rapids, Iowa,
and Manhattan, Kansas

[Totals, in inches; length of record, in parenthesis;
Data from National Weather Service]

Bismarck
(119 years)
Cedar Rapids
(112 years)
Manhattan
(104 years)
Year Total Year Total Year Total
1993 22.57 1993 44.34 1951 43.05
1915 17.59 1969 27.88 1993 42.21
1914 17.57 1902 27.63 1902 34.71
1879 15.60 1990 27.55 1908 34.69
1927 15.14 1924 25.27 1915 31.22

Daily Accumulations

The rates of accumulation for 1993 daily precipitation are compared with normal values in figure 9. The normal values are the accumulated daily averages for 1961-90 smoothed to pass through the month-end accumulated totals. The precipitation totals for January through September 1993 at Bismarck, Manhattan, and Cedar Rapids were about 200 percent of normal for January through September 1961-90, but the rates at which the precipitation accumulated were different (fig. 9). Although the rate of accumulation at Bismarck was about normal through June, a dryer-than-normal January through March caused the amount of precipitation received to be slightly less than normal until the end of June. Three large storms, June 29 through July 1, July 15 and 16, and July 21 and 22, combined to produce the large seasonal totals. There was little precipitation after the middle of August. Precipitation at Manhattan followed a pattern similar to that of Bismarck, except that several large storms came earlier in the year. Manhattan's large seasonal total resulted primarily from precipitation during four distinct periods--March 29 through 31, May 7 through 11, July 1 and 2, and July 18 through 22. However, precipitation continued to accumulate at greater-than-normal rates through August and September.

The rate of accumulation of precipitation at Cedar Rapids was different from that at either Bismarck or Manhattan. Although large storms, such as that for July 4 and 5, contributed to the excessive moisture, the rate of accumulation was greater than normal after mid-March. Unlike Bismarck and Manhattan, the rate reflected the accumulation of many small-to-moderate precipitation amounts and shows the effects of widespread storms over the entire area. The above-normal accumulation rates continued into late August, but September precipitation was near normal.

Distribution of July Precipitation

Much of the severe flooding in the upper Mississippi River Basin during 1993 was the culmination of the wet spring and a series of storms during July. Daily rainfall totaled more than 4.00 inches at many locations during July. Thus, flooding was affected not only by wet antecedent conditions and large rainfall totals, but also by the way July daily rainfall was distributed. Maximum 1- and 3-day rainfall totals for July at Bismarck, Manhattan, and Cedar Rapids are similar (table 4). Maximum 5-day rainfall totals are similar at Bismarck and Cedar Rapids, but the maximum 5-day rainfall total at Manhattan was about 1.6 inches greater than at Bismarck and Cedar Rapids (table 4).

Table 4. Maximum 1-, 3-, and 5-day rainfall totals
for July 1993 at Bismarck, North Dakota,
Manhattan, Kansas, and Cedar Rapids, Iowa

[Data from National Weather Service]

Rainfall totals (inches)
Location 1-day 3-day 5-day
Bismarck 4.32 5.74 6.18
Manhattan 4.81 5.56 7.70
Cedar Rapids 4.18 5.55 6.01

Effects of Reservoirs in the Kansas, Missouri, and Mississippi River Basins on the 1993 Floods

By Charles A. Perry

Introduction

The floods of 1993 were of historic magnitude as water in the Mississippi and Missouri Rivers reached levels that exceeded many of the previous observed maximums. Although large parts of the flood plains of both rivers upstream from St. Louis, Missouri, were inundated, water levels would have been even higher had it not been for the large volume of runoff retained in flood-control reservoirs. Most of the total flood-control storage available upstream from St. Louis is located along the main stem and tributaries of the Missouri River; the largest concentration of reservoirs is located within the Kansas River Basin (fig. 10). The Kansas River Basin accounts for about 10 percent (60,000 square miles) of the drainage area of the Missouri River Basin, and reservoirs control streamflow from 85 percent (50,840 square miles) of the drainage area of the Kansas River Basin. Analyses of flood discharges in the Kansas River indicate that reservoirs reduced flooding along the Kansas and the lower Missouri Rivers.

Flood discharges from the Mississippi and the Missouri Rivers combined for a historic peak of 1,080,000 cubic feet per second on the Mississippi River at St. Louis, Missouri, on August 1, 1993. Historic streamflow records show that this discharge was the largest since 1861 and has been exceeded only by an estimated discharge of 1,300,000 cubic feet per second for the flood of 1844. Discharge for the flood of 1903, which had been estimated to be 1,019,000 cubic feet per second was slightly less than that of 1993. However, changes in the upper Mississippi River Basin that have been made in the last 50 years, such as the construction of many flood-control reservoirs, reduced the magnitude of the maximum discharge of the 1993 flood at St. Louis.

Flood-Control Reservoirs

The function of flood-control reservoirs is to temporarily store a part of the flood discharge for later release so that the flood peak downstream will be reduced. In an uncontrolled stream, the flood discharges of the tributary streams are added to the discharge in the main stem. As a result, the total flood volume increases in the downstream direction, as does the maximum discharge (fig. 11A). In the case of the controlled stream, all or part of the flood discharge is stored in a reservoir for later release at a reduced flow rate (fig. 11B). Downstream from the reservoir, additional flood discharges in the tributaries enter the main stem, which add uncontrolled flood discharges to the controlled discharge. In the actual operation of a flood-control reservoir, the uncontrolled flood discharges from the drainage area downstream from a reservoir need to be considered before reservoir releases are made. If uncontrolled flood discharge from areas downstream from the reservoir produces a flood on the main stem, then reservoir releases can be reduced to near zero to minimize additional flooding downstream, provided storage capacity is available in the reservoir.

Most flood-control reservoirs in the upper Mississippi River Basin are of the multipurpose type, which are used to store water for irrigation, power generation, navigation, public-water supply, and recreation. The flood-control, or flood-storage capacity, pool of a reservoir always is above the multipurpose pool level (fig. 12). All reservoirs with provision for flood control are operated so that a minimum amount of water in the flood-control pool is maintained prior to flooding to maximize flood protection. The flood-reduction potential of a reservoir is compromised if additional floodwater must be stored before the previously stored water can be released.

Flood-control reservoirs are constructed with an emergency spillway to protect the dam from being overtopped, which can cause severe damage to or failure of the dam. Flow through the spillway can be uncontrolled or can be controlled by gates that regulate the releases up to a certain elevation in the reservoir. Once the water level in the reservoir rises to the top of the closed spillway gates or the sill of an uncontrolled spillway, water stored above this elevation in the reservoir is in the surcharge pool. Outflow of surcharge in the reservoir is determined by the depth of water and the geometry of the spillway or the spillway gate opening.

Flood Storage in and Effects of Reservoirs on Flood Discharges, Missouri River Basin

There are 34 major flood-control reservoirs within the Missouri River Basin that drain areas greater than 100 square miles (table 5). Table 5 also includes 11 reservoirs in the Mississippi River Basin upstream from its confluence with the Missouri River. Of the reservoirs in the Missouri River Basin, water levels in 13 reached historic elevations, 3 came within 1 foot of their records, and 6 exceeded their spillway elevations. Water levels in reservoirs on tributaries of the Mississippi River upstream from its confluence with the Missouri River, including Saylorville Lake, Coralville Reservoir, and Lake Red Rock, all in Iowa, also reached record elevations. Several reservoirs in the Arkansas River Basin, just south of the Kansas River Basin, had record and near-record water-level elevations. The number of reservoirs with record water-level elevations is an indication of the magnitude and wide extent of the floods of 1993.

Missouri River Main Stem

The six-reservoir system on the main stem of the Missouri River from Montana through North Dakota and South Dakota is used for power generation, storage for navigation and public-water supply, and flood control. When the 1993 water year began (October 1, 1992), the total storage content in the reservoir system was about 43,900,000 acre-feet. By April 1, 1993, the total system content had increased to 45,468,000 acre- feet (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, written commun., 1993). The additional 1,568,000 acre-feet resulted from runoff produced by melting snowpack in the mountains during winter and early spring. The total increase in storage contents of the six-reservoir system from April 1 to midnight August 1, 1993, was 10,293,000 acre-feet and the result of excessive snowmelt and rainfall during this period. During July 1993 alone, reservoirs on the main stem Missouri River stored nearly 5,369,000 acre-feet of floodwater. If this water had been released at a constant rate, the daily average discharge of the Missouri River downstream during July would have been about 87,000 cubic feet per second larger than the observed average discharge of 291,000 cubic feet per second on the Missouri River at Kansas City, Missouri (map reference P, fig. 10).

Kansas River Basin

The Kansas River Basin is about 60,000 square miles in area, of which streamflow from 85 percent, or 50,840 square miles, of the basin is controlled by reservoirs. Except for the main-stem Missouri River reservoir system, the Kansas River Basin is the largest basin under flood control in the Mississippi River Basin. Eighteen reservoirs, which have a total flood-control capacity of 7,390,000 acre-feet, provide flood protection within the basin and along the Missouri River downstream. From April 1 to August 1, 1993, the reservoir system in the Kansas River Basin stored 4,500,000 acre-feet of water. Of this amount, 4,027,000 acre-feet were stored during July alone. If this water had been released at a constant rate, the average discharge of the Kansas River downstream during July would have been about 65,500 cubic feet per second larger than the observed average discharge of 76,800 cubic feet per second on the Kansas River at DeSoto, Kansas (map reference N, fig. 10). About one-half of the 4,027,000 acre-feet were stored in Milford and Tuttle Creek Lakes (reservoir reference numbers 15 and 22 in figure 10). Both lakes filled their flood-control pools and were required to store floodwater in their surcharge pools. Tuttle Creek Lake stored 97,000 acre-feet in its surcharge pool, and Milford Lake stored 207,000 acre-feet in its surcharge pool.

Chariton River Basin

The Chariton River is a tributary of the Missouri River and flows from Iowa through northern Missouri. Lake Rathbun in Iowa and Lake Longbranch in Missouri (reservoir reference numbers 28 and 30 in figure 10) are flood-control reservoirs in the Chariton River Basin and stored 269,000 and 9,000 acre-feet, respectively, during July 1993. The water level in Lake Rathbun reached a record elevation of 927.20 feet above sea level on July 28, thus requiring the storage of 27,000 acre-feet of water in its surcharge pool.

Osage River Basin

Streamflow from the nearly 15,000-square-mile Osage River Basin is almost completely controlled by Melvern, Pomona, and Hillsdale Lakes in Kansas (reservoir reference numbers 25, 26, and 27 figure 10). and Stockton, Pomme de Terre, and Harry S Truman Lakes and Lake of the Ozarks in Missouri (reservoir reference numbers 31, 32, 33, and 34 in figure 10). The reservoir system in this basin stored 3,547,000 acre- feet of water from April 1 to August 1, 1993; of this total, 3,289,000 acre-feet were stored during July. The effect of Harry S Truman Lake on discharge in the Osage River was significant because the lake stored more than 3,000,000 acre-feet of water during July. The storage in Harry S Truman Lake and that of the other reservoirs in the Osage River Basin system reduced the average discharge of the Osage River at its confluence with the Missouri River for July by 53,500 cubic feet per second.

Combined Effect of Flood-Control Reservoirs on Missouri River Discharge

As severe as the flooding was during 1993, stream and river levels could have been even higher had a system of flood-control reservoirs not been in place throughout the Missouri River Basin. About 10,300,000 acre-feet of potential floodwater were stored in the upper Missouri River main-stem reservoirs in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota from April 1 to August 1, 1993. In the downstream sections of the Missouri River Basin, the quantity of water stored from April 1 to August 1 in reservoirs on the Kansas River was 4,500,000 acre-feet, while reservoirs in the Platte, the Chariton, and the Osage River Basins stored 3,900,000 acre-feet. If the total 18,700,000 acre-feet stored in the system had been allowed to flow to St. Louis, the average discharge of the Missouri River would have been 77,300 cubic feet per second greater for this 4-month period. During July alone, the combined storage of about 13,000,000 acre- feet in the Missouri River Basin--5,400,000 acre-feet in the Missouri River main-stem reservoirs, about 4,000,000 acre-feet in the Kansas River Basin reservoirs, and about 3,600,000 acre-feet in the reservoirs of the Platte, the Chariton, and the Osage River Basins--reduced the average discharge of the Missouri River at Hermann, Missouri (map reference Q, fig. 10), from about 587,000 to 376,000 cubic feet per second, which is a difference of 211,000 cubic feet per second. An analysis of the storage of flood volumes in the Missouri River Basin from April 1 to September 1, and specifically during July, enables a comparison of discharges at various points along the river and tributaries with and without the protection of the reservoirs.

The discharges of streams and the changes of storage in reservoirs in the Kansas River Basin during July 1993 were analyzed to estimate the discharges that would have occurred in the absence of the reservoir system. Floodwater that was stored in a particular reservoir was routed down the river valley under high-discharge conditions and added to the observed discharge downstream. This simulation process was iterative because several streams had more than one reservoir. Routing times were determined from observed high discharges before reservoir construction. The Muskingum routing method (Viessman and others, 1972) was used to allow for flood-discharge storage along the river valley as the flood discharges moved downstream. Using this method, daily mean discharges were estimated for selected gaging stations in the Kansas River Basin by using daily reservoir storage and daily observed stream discharges. The computer program BENEFITS (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, written commun., 1993) was used to estimate the uncontrolled instantaneous maximum discharge at selected gaging stations on the Kansas and the Missouri Rivers. The uncontrolled instantaneous maximum discharges are compared with the observed instantaneous maximum discharges and the simulated uncontrolled maximum daily mean discharges (table 6).

The total effect of the Kansas River Basin reservoirs can be seen in the analysis of the flood discharges on the Kansas River at DeSoto, Kansas (fig. 13). The simulation of uncontrolled discharges resulted in the highest daily mean discharge of 252,000 cubic feet per second on July 10. A secondary simulated uncontrolled discharge of 233,000 cubic feet per second would have occurred on July 26. An observed instantaneous maximum discharge of 172,000 cubic feet per second occurred on July 27, while the instantaneous uncontrolled discharge was 266,000 cubic feet per second on July 27. Many other cities and hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland along the tributaries and main stem of the Kansas River benefited from the flood-control reservoirs as flood discharges were reduced by 30 to 70 percent.

All simulated uncontrolled discharges on the Kansas River would have been contained by the Federal levee system, except in Kansas City where backwater from the flooding Missouri River on July 27 might have caused the river stage to overtop the levee system there. However, without the control of reservoirs on the main-stem Missouri River, the combined uncontrolled discharges of the Kansas and the Missouri Rivers would have overtopped the Kansas City levees (Flood Insurance Administration, 1981).

Reservoir-Level Maintenance

To maintain storage capacity in flood-control reservoirs, stored floodwater is released as soon as the river downstream can accept it without additional flooding, as indicated by figure 14, which shows water-level fluctuations during the 1993 water year at selected reservoirs in the Kansas River Basin. Water levels in many of the reservoirs in the Kansas River Basin at the beginning of the 1993 water year were above multipurpose-pool elevation, but all were lowered during the 1992-93 winter. However, the snowmelt and precipitation of February through May 1993 resulted in fluctuations and steadily increasing discharge in streams in the Kansas River Basin as summer approached. An example is Tuttle Creek Lake, where, beginning in February, monthly increases in storage were followed by controlled releases to lower the lake level back to multipurpose-pool elevation. At the same time, other reservoirs in the Kansas River Basin were releasing stored water, and many uncontrolled streams were flooding. This combination resulted in many streams being at bankfull capacities for extended periods of time.

This cycle of precipitation, flooding, and resulting releases of water from reservoirs was interrupted during July when intense rains fell somewhere in the basin nearly every day of the month. With most uncontrolled streams at or above flood stage and the lower Missouri and Mississippi Rivers flooding, the flood-storage capacity of the Kansas River Basin reservoir system was nearly completely filled. Some floodwater was released as water levels in Tuttle Creek and Milford Lakes reached surcharge storage elevations, but the reservoir system performed effectively to reduce the flooding.

Floods in the Upper Mississippi River Basin, 1993

By Charles Parrett, Nick B. Melcher, and Robert W. James, Jr.

Introduction

From spring through summer of 1993, severe flooding in the upper Mississippi River Basin resulted from intense, persistent, widespread rainfall from January through September. The flooding was unusual because it came so late in the spring-summer runoff season and because of the large number of streamflow-gaging stations that had record or near-record maximum discharges. Record maximum discharges were recorded from mid-June through early August at many U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations in the Minnesota River Basin in Minnesota; in the Skunk, the Des Moines, the Little Sioux, and the Nishnabotna River Basins in Iowa; on the Mississippi River at Keokuk, Iowa; in the James River Basin in North and South Dakota; in the Platte River Basin in Nebraska; in the Kansas River Basin in Kansas; in the Grand River Basin in Missouri; and along the Missouri River from St. Joseph to Booneville, Missouri. Unusually high flood discharges were recorded at other locations throughout the area of flooding. The flooding also was unusual for its long duration and widespread and severe damage. At St. Louis, Missouri, the Mississippi River reached flood stage on June 26 and remained above flood stage until late August. Millions of acres of agricultural and urban lands in the upper Mississippi Basin were inundated for weeks, and unofficial damage estimates exceeded $10 billion (Parrett and others, 1993).

Flood Recurrence Interval

For comparative purposes, flood-maximum discharges are referenced to a specific recurrence interval or probability of occurrence. The recurrence interval is the average number of years between occurrences of annual maximum discharges that equal or exceed a specified discharge. For example, a discharge that has a 100-year recurrence interval is so large that an equal or greater annual maximum discharge is expected, on average, only once in any 100-year period. Because of the random nature of flood events, the times between annual maximum discharges of a certain magnitude are far from uniform; a large flood in 1 year does not preclude the occurrence of an even larger flood the next year. In any given year, the annual maximum discharge has 1 chance in 100 of equaling or exceeding the 100-year flood (U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982).

Recurrence intervals for the 1993 flood peaks presented in this report are generally determined by using the most current published USGS flood-frequency reports for States in the area of flooding. Recurrence intervals for the 1993 maximum discharges on the Kansas River, the Missouri River, and the Mississippi River are based on unpublished flood-frequency analyses completed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Gary Dyhouse, St. Louis District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, written commun., 1993; Jerry Buehre, Kansas City District, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, written commun., 1993).

Chronology of the Spring and Summer Flooding

The magnitude and timing of several rainstorms during late June and July, combined with wet antecedent climatic conditions, were the principal causes of the severe flooding in the upper Mississippi River Basin. To illustrate the effect of the timing of runoff from these storms on the maximum discharge in the Mississippi River, the maximum discharges and their dates of occurrence for selected streamflow-gaging stations in the general area of flooding are shown in figure 15.

During June 17-18, 2 to 7 inches of rain fell throughout southern Minnesota, northern Iowa, and southwestern Wisconsin. Runoff from this storm caused flooding on the Minnesota and the Mississippi Rivers in Minnesota and the Chippewa and the Black Rivers in Wisconsin. As a result of these floodwaters, the discharge of the Mississippi River at Clinton, Iowa, peaked on July 8, 1993.

Two separate storms during early July caused large-scale flooding in Iowa. During the first storm on July 5, 2 to 5 inches of rain fell in central Iowa and caused lowland flooding on the Iowa, the Skunk, and the Des Moines Rivers. During the second storm on July 8-9, 2 to 8 inches of rain fell in central Iowa. Rivers throughout central Iowa had not receded from the July 5 storm, and the three major reservoirs in this part of the State were at capacity. The runoff from this storm, combined with the runoff from the July 5 storm, caused record or near-record maximum discharges at streamflow-gaging stations throughout the Iowa, the Skunk, the Raccoon, and the Des Moines River Basins. The floodwaters from these rivers entered the Mississippi River at about the same time as the flood peak from the late June storm in northern basins reached Keokuk, Iowa. The coincident timing of the flood peaks from these tributary rivers increased the maximum discharge on the Mississippi River and aggravated flooding on the Mississippi River from Davenport, Iowa, to St. Louis, Missouri. The discharge on the Mississippi River at St. Louis that resulted from these combined floodwaters peaked on July 20.

On July 15-16, 2 to 7 inches of rain fell in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota and caused flooding in the upstream reaches of the Minnesota River Basin in Minnesota and the James River Basin in North Dakota. Although maximum discharges from this storm were not as large in the downstream reaches of these basins as the maximum discharges of late June, the floodwaters from the James River added to the flooding of late July on the Missouri River.

From July 22 to 24, 2 to 13 inches of rain fell in parts of Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois. The runoff from this storm caused record maximum discharges on the Platte River in Nebraska and contributed large flows to previously filled reservoirs in the Kansas River Basin in Kansas. Maximum discharges on the Kansas River were the largest since 1951, which is before significant river regulation began. Discharges also were near-record on the Nishnabotna River in Iowa and the Illinois River in Illinois.

Before the July 22 to 24 storm, the Missouri River was at or near flood stage as a result of large tributary inflows earlier in the month from the James River in North and South Dakota, the Big Sioux River in South Dakota, and the Little Sioux River in Iowa. As a result, floodwaters from the Platte and the Kansas Rivers caused record or near-record maximum discharges on the Missouri River at streamflow-gaging stations downstream from the confluence of the Platte River. The flood peak on the Missouri River reached Hermann, Missouri, on July 31. The maximum discharge from the Missouri River caused a second and greater maximum discharge at the streamflow-gaging station on the Mississippi River at St. Louis on August 1.

Flood conditions on the Mississippi River differed upstream and downstream from the confluence of the Ohio River. At Thebes, Illinois, just upstream from the confluence, severe flooding on the Mississippi River peaked on August 7. Downstream from the confluence, flooding on the Mississippi River was not severe because of less-than-average discharge contributed by the Ohio River and a substantially larger channel capacity in this reach of the Mississippi River. The discharge of the Ohio River was less than average during July and August as a result of generally dry conditions and low reservoir outflows throughout the Ohio River Basin.

Flood Discharges, Gage Heights, and Recurrence Intervals in the Upper Mississippi and Missouri River Basins by State

By Charles A. Perry

Flooding during the spring and summer of 1993 in the upper Mississippi and Missouri River Basins was widespread, encompassing nine States. Many streams in this nine-State area had historic floods, while some streams had only moderate flooding. Tables 7-15 include a compilation of flood information for selected streams within each of the states of Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin (U.S. Geological Survey, 1994). Figures 16-24 provide the location of the streamflow-gaging stations within each State. Only streams within the upper Mississippi and Missouri Basins are listed. Flooding outside of these basins or other than the spring and summer of 1993 are listed in the sections "Summary of Floods of 1992" and "Summary of Floods of 1993."

References

Flood Insurance Administration, 1981, Flood insurance study, City of Kansas City, Kansas: U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, February 1981, 31 p.

Krug, W.R., and House, L.B., 1980, Streamflow model of Wisconsin River for estimating flood frequency and volume: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 80-1103, 44 p.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraction, 1992, Daily normals of temperature, precipitation, and heating and cooling degree days, 1961-90--By State: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraction Climatography of the United States [variously paged].

National Weather Service, 1993a, Midwestern floods--Heat and drought in the East, special climate summary: Asheville, N.C., v. 93, no. 1, 4 p.

____1993b, Update on Midwestern floods--Heat and drought in the East, special climate summary: Asheville, N.C., v. 93, no. 2, 8 p.

____1993c, Growing season summary, special climate summary: Asheville, N.C., v. 93, no. 3, 9 p.

____1994, Climatological data for Illinois (v. 98), Iowa (v. 104), Kansas (v. 107), Minnesota (v. 99), Missouri (v. 97), Nebraska (v. 98), North Dakota (v. 102), South Dakota (v. 98), and Wisconsin (v. 98): Asheville, N.C., National Climate Data Center [variously paged].

Parrett, Charles, Melcher, N.B., and James, R.W., Jr., 1993, Flood discharges in the upper Mississippi River Basin, 1993, in Floods in the upper Mississippi River Basin, 1993: U.S. Geological survey Circular 1120-A, 14 p.

Perry, C.A., 1994, Effects of reservoirs on flood discharges in the Kansas and Missouri River Basins, 1993, in Floods in the upper Mississippi River Basin, 1993: U.S. Geological survey Circular 1120-E, 20 p.

U.S. Geological Survey, 1994, Water resources data for Colorado, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wisconsin, water year 1993: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Data Reports CO-93-1, IA-93-1, IL-93-1, KS-93-1, MN-93-1, MO-93-1, MT-93-1, NE-93-1, ND-93-1, SD-93-1, WI-93-1, [variously paged].

U.S. Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data, 1982, Guidelines for determining flood flow frequency: U.S. Geological Survey, Hydrology Subcommittee Bulletin 17B, 183 p.

Viessman, Warren, Jr., Harbaugh, T.E., and Knapp, J.W., 1972, Introduction to hydrology: New York, Intext Educational Publications, p. 173-221.

Wahl, K.L., Vining, K.C., and Wiche, G.J., 1993, Precipitation in the upper Mississippi River Basin, January 1 throught July 31, 1993, in Floods in the upper Mississippi River Basin, 1993: U.S. Geological survey Circular 1120-B, 13 p.

____1994, Precipitation in the upper Mississippi River Basin during the great floods of 1993: Hydrological Science and Technology, v. 10, no. 1-4, p. 140-152.